The term “transitory” turned out to be the only thing…transitory.
Seasons greetings! I’ll keep it short this week so that we can all thoroughly enjoy spending time with family…now that Bitcoin is back over $50k.
Remember last Christmas? That was the best. If you don’t remember, BTC was at $23k on Christmas Eve and consistently broke new all time highs every day to $30k by New Years. Not saying that this will happen again but it would be nice.
I’m still feeling pretty good about the way we’ve been thinking about the market since early December: after a historic year for funds, eyes turned to protecting annual bonuses, selling to harvest 20% carries, and covering redemptions from LPs looking to take some off the table. This created a downward spiral for an exhausted and over-leveraged market.
Leverage in the system is back to normal levels, funds are likely done selling, are cashed-up, and will presumably consider frontrunning other Funds with incoming buy flows in late December, early January.
Watch out, Bears.
I won’t spend much time on this but if you’ve been on Twitter this week you would’ve noticed former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, absolutely slam web3 and crypto VCs. Web3 proponents fought back with tweet replies arguing that web3 will become more decentralized over time and that he was missing the plot…some notables like Marc Andreessen from a16Z even blocked him.
Clearly, Jack has aligned himself with the Bitcoin community and values decentralization above all else.
WorldCoin founder, VC, and web3 proponent Sam Altman (the kind of guy Jack was speaking out against) created a poll yesterday asking Twitter what will matter more to the world in 10 years…
I’m guessing that was not that answer he was looking for.
What we saw at the desk — by Dan Wright
Monday and Tuesday we saw more buying on the desk as clients were feeling a Santa Claus rally coming on. BTC/USD and ETH USD both put in reversal candles on the week and as of now are up 9.1% and 3.95%, respectively. On the weekly charts below you can see how both pairs have followed their longer term trend lines and are still within their bullish channels.
In other pairs, SOL/USD has seen a 5.35% rise and XRP/USD is up 16.74% on the week. LUNA/USD was the big winner up 25%.
We expect to see more volume next week as traders jockey to get into positions before the start of the new year.
BTC/USD support now at $50k
ETH/USD support now at $4k
In case you missed it…
- U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis to pitch Congress on creating a crypto regulatory body https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2021/12/23/lummis-to-propose-new-crypto-regulator-clear-guidance-in-2022-bill/
- Crypto companies in Japan are leaving the country due to the country’s tax policies https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2021/12/23/japans-taxes-on-crypto-firms-are-leading-some-to-leave-the-country/
- Centralized exchanges saw over $14 trillion in trading volume this year https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/128526/centralized-crypto-exchanges-14-trillion-trading-volume-2021
- Decentralized exchanges saw over $1 trillion in trading volume this year https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/128500/decentralized-exchanges-saw-over-1-trillion-in-trading-volume-this-year
(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
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